汇丰银行－全球新兴市场资本流动报告－35页2017.4.28－

秋云飞

USD4bn along in the week ended 26 April
EM funds and related assets should continue to benefit from an improved China-EMgrowth
outlook, range bound UST 10yr yield (2.2-2.5%), softer USD and low cross asset volatility. Easy
global and EM inflation pressures will likely keep market expectations towards EM central bank
monetary policy actions in the neutral/dovish camp (p.7), which is positive for local debt
markets. Moreover, French election results has reduced DM political and policy risk. Yet,
concerns about US trade policy and geopolitical risks remain in place. We are constructive on
EM and see pullbacks as a continued buying opportunity as the discussions we had with
investors and policy maker during the IMF-WB meetingsstill suggest a benign outlook.
Stronger inflows to EM over DM funds in % of AuM terms, in the week ended 26April. Among
EM bond funds, Brazil, Mexico and Indonesia received the largest inflows in USD terms, while
frontier markets led in % of AUM terms. Within EM equity funds, China, India and Taiwan
grabbed the largest inflows, in USD terms. Strong institutional fund flows led the boost in flows
to bonds and equity funds (p.13). In DM, US funds led gains among bond funds, while all DM
equity funds showed gains, led by US, Japan and Germany.
HSBC’s early signalling system still suggests strong appetite for EM funds across the board (p.
14). Likewise, EM fund flows momentum (p. 5) and dispersion indicators (p. 8) shows
constructive dynamics for bonds and equities. Finally, daily financial account portfolio flows
show strong gains in bonds (seven countries), mainly S. Korea, India and S. Africa, and into
equities (eight countries), mostly to S. Korea, Indonesia and India (p. 15).
On benchmarks’ total return, EM equities jumped 3.1% w/w (14% y-t-d), led by Turkey, Poland
and Russia. LCD added 0.2% w/w (6.7% y-t-d), on carry (0.1% w/w; 2.1% y-t-d) and EM FX
(0.1% w/w; 3.6% y-t-d), mostly TRY, PLN and HUF. EM Corp gained 0.2% w/w (4.5% y-t-d),
lifted by HY (0.6% w/w; 5.6% y-t-d). EXD grew 0.1% w/w (5.1% y-t-d), onVenezuela, Argentina