中金公司CICC-2012年中国房地产投资深度策略报告(72 pages)

kenblues

黎明前的黑暗：中金公司CICC-2012年中国房地产投资深度策略报告(72 pages)


Contents
Our stock picks ............................................................................................................................................ 6
Names we like......................................................................................................................................... 6
Names we don’t like ................................................................................................................................ 6
Our logic for choosing stocks given current market conditions .............................................................. 9
Long-term investment value emerges ...................................................................................................... 9
Not free of short-term risks..................................................................................................................... 10
We prefer large players for their defensiveness in 1H12........................................................................ 10
Commercial property developers are another defensive choice ............................................................ 14
Focus #1: What is the long-term trend in China's property market?...................................................... 15
Property stock is reasonable, while structure leans toward residential .................................................. 15
Market to cool down, but unlikely to collapse amid the economic restructuring ..................................... 17
Long-term trend is still upward ............................................................................................................... 21
Focus #2: How should we look at the current market correction?......................................................... 24
Market is now experiencing a medium-term correction towards the long-term trend ............................. 24
Market to enter a new phase after correction......................................................................................... 24
Focus #3: What is the actual supply-demand picture?............................................................................ 28
Cumulative demand and supply are balanced historically...................................................................... 28
Potential supply is huge, but will only become available incrementally .................................................. 28
Demand to be driven gradually .............................................................................................................. 29
Price bubbles exist, but will cool down................................................................................................... 30
Price-to-income ratio to improve as price correction continues.............................................................. 31
Rental yield will become more reasonable............................................................................................. 31
Focus #4: What is our view on the physical market in 2012? ................................................................. 33
Physical market is approaching its worst period, bottom likely in 2Q12 ................................................. 33
No sharp corrections are expected ........................................................................................................ 34
Policy to turn in mid-2012....................................................................................................................... 36
Significant slowdown for industry indicators expected in 2012............................................................... 36
Structural divergences to widen ............................................................................................................. 38
Focus #5: How are conditions affecting developers in 2012? ................................................................ 42
Financial position is better now than in 2008 ......................................................................................... 42
Developer divergences to widen ............................................................................................................ 43
China Resources Land (01109.HK): BUY .................................................................................................. 45
China Overseas Land & Investment (00688.HK): BUY............................................................................. 46
Longfor Properties (00960.HK): BUY......................................................................................................... 47
Sunac China Holdings (01918.HK): BUY................................................................................................... 48
Agile Property Holdings (03383.HK): BUY ................................................................................................ 49
Beijing North Star (00588.HK): BUY........................................................................................................... 50
Franshion Properties (00817.HK): BUY..................................................................................................... 51
Shui On Land (00272.HK): ACCUMULATE ................................................................................................ 52
Sino Ocean Land Holdings (03377.HK): ACCUMULATE .......................................................................... 53
Country Garden (02007.HK): ACCUMULATE ............................................................................................ 54
Glorious Property Holdings (0845.HK): ACCUMULATE........................................................................... 55
Powerlong Real Estate Holdings (01238.HK): HOLD................................................................................ 56
Greentown China Holdings (03900.HK): HOLD ........................................................................................ 57
Shenzhen Investment (00604.HK): HOLD.................................................................................................. 58
SOHO China (00410.HK): HOLD................................................................................................................. 59
Guangzhou R&F Properties (2777.HK): HOLD.......................................................................................... 60
Shimao Property Holdings (00813.HK): HOLD ......................................................................................... 61
Evergrande Real Estate Group (03333.HK): NOT RATED ........................................................................ 62
Appendix: The long-term trend of China's housing market .................................................................... 63
Assumptions on major economic indicators ........................................................................................... 67
GDP projections .................................................................................................................................... 67
Urban population and urbanization rate projections............................................................................... 69