Understanding China's Economic Statistics – Second Edition

秋云飞

China’s economy, already the second-largest in the world, continues to grow in
global importance. Monitoring the cyclical and structural changes in China’s
economy—and understanding Chinese economic statistics—is therefore more
crucial than ever for investors and policymakers.
The Goldman Sachs Economics Research team has invested considerable effort in
reviewing Chinese statistics, analyzing their relationships with the business cycle,
and identifying their limitations. We have also developed a series of proprietary
indices for monitoring the Chinese economy—both at the macroeconomic level,
such as the Goldman Sachs Current Activity Indicator (CAI) and the Goldman Sachs
China Financial Conditions Index (FCI), and at the sector level, for example, our
trackers of consumption and investment activity.
This “little red book” is a comprehensive update of our original Understanding
China Economic Statistics, published in 2006. It is similar in format to our longestablished statistics handbooks for the US, UK and Europe, but contains several
distinct features owing to the challenges of interpreting China’s data and policy
settings. It has been expanded considerably from the original edition, reflecting the
Understanding China's Economic Statistics – Second Edition
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Numerous additional charts and tables to summarize key data and display
time series.
Updated notes on caveats to the data. We have assigned subjective
rankings for “signal to noise ratio” and “macro importance” to key data series.
Detail on the extensive collection of proprietary indicators we have
developed over the years. While our colleagues around the world have also
developed proprietary indicators, and in many cases (e.g., the CAI and FCI) we
apply those techniques, we have also developed many China-specific indicators.
1 .  The production side of the statistics is better at capturing growth momentum
than the expenditure side, mainly because the basic infrastructure for data
compiling in China remains geared toward the production-based approach. This
assessment may change gradually because China’s statistical authorities plan to
improve data collection for expenditure items..
2 .  We find the monthly growth indicators, especially in the industrial/
manufacturing sector, such as industrial production, are of better quality than
the quarterly and annual GDP figures, partly because monthly data are subject to
less non-economic interference, but also because service sector measurement is
generally more difficult.
3 .  The reported growth rates for data series such as value-added industrial output,
fixed asset investment and retail sales do not always correspond with the
reported levels over time. In most cases, this is because of changes in the survey
sample. For example, more companies have grown above the minimum size
threshold required to be included in the sample each year, leading to an upward
bias to the level of the series over time. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)
does attempt to correct for this bias by requesting companies to report year-onyear growth rates.
increased importance of China’s economy and economic data for the rest of the
world and for a diverse set of markets. We hope it will serve as a useful reference
both for clients investing in China directly and for those who need to track the
Chinese economy due to its influence on other markets.

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