The Global Macro Outlook

秋云飞

We expect global industrial production momentum to fade over the next
few months, before rolling over during the summer. In the case of steel,
chart below, output growth slowed from 8.1% YoY globally in January to 7.8% in
February at 1.65bn tonnes annualised, Colin Hamilton and the Macquarie
commodities team are forecasting 1.6% YoY growth for 2017, and -0.3% for
2018. The key to this is Chinese construction activity, where we expect some
signs of weakening (but not collapse) to emerge during the coming months, and
an adjustment in Chinese inventories (Fig.1 and Fig.15).
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macquarie research