2011年高盛投资策略

herojack

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2011 outlook: A bastion of growth 3
Macro outlook: Above-consensus growth in 2011E 4
Five areas to watch in 2011E 4
Earnings the main driver for targets; multiples may expand further 10
We see room for multiple expansion in banks and selective cyclicals 15
The path may be affected by external factors 16
Sector preferences: Banks a key re-rating focus; adding laggard cyclicals 18
Liquidity likely to outweigh capital raising overhang 26
Implementation and top stock picks 30
2011 outlook by sector 31
Agrochemicals: Fertilizer re-rating on strengthening fundamentals 32
Airlines: Favorable operating environment; HSR threat overblown 35
Airports, Toll Roads & Railways: Strong growth at reasonable price 37
Autos: Volume increases, growth slows, profitability sustains 40
Banks: Less policy noise, more focus on NIM / earnings / fundamentals 42
Clean Energy: Attractive wind/solar; overpriced nuclear 45
Commodities: Structural changes to drive share performance 47
Conglomerates: Bottom-up focus 50
Construction Machinery: ‘Gearing’ up for expansion and upgrades 52
Consumer Discretionary: Demand and consolidation driving growth 54
Consumer Staples: Further consolidation & better pricing power 57
Diversified Financials: More favorable industry trends, but entry level key 59
Healthcare: Rising quality standard coupled with price control 61
Insurance: Riding on rate rise cycle 63
Internet/Media: eCommerce takes focus, Gaming recovery possible 65
Oil & Gas: Prefer gas and E&P exposure 68
Ports: Favorable risk-reward trade-off; upside in expectations 71
Power Utilities: Positive on hydro power exposure 73
Property: Volume names to outperform 75
Shipping: Growth markets to sustain secular growth 79
Technology: Growth stories are still the focus 82
Telecom Services: Diverging trends become clearer 84