The Global Macro Outlook Beyond the cycle

秋云飞

he cold bath: With the high-frequency manufacturing sector data rolling over,
page 2, we believe it is time to focus back on two underlying trends: weak labour
force growth in the leading economies and financial repression for decades.  We
forecast moderate trend growth and low real and nominal bond yields globally.
The cycle rolls:we forecast 2018 and 2019 global real GDP growth (2.7% and
2.6% respectively) to slow versus 2017 (2.9%).
Labour force growth:The US is better positioned than Europe, Japan and even
China. Nonetheless, even assuming an aggressive rebound in the core working
age (25-54 year old) participation rate, just ~120,000 jobs per month will be
necessary to keep US unemployment stable in 2017. This pace decelerates to
just ~45,000K jobs per month in 2020. The aging demographic profile means
underlying US labour force growth is likely to be just ~0.4% long-term.
For the US, the above combined with recent trends in productivity growth of
~1.0% pa, that demographic forces suggest will continue, leads to our estimate
for US real potential output growth of just 1.4% pa
16 May 2017
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