Global Gas Security Review 2017 全球天然气安全回顾

秋云飞

Table of contents
Executive summary ................................................................................................................. 9
1. Recent natural gas market developments and related security of supply issues ................... 13
Electricity and gas security events in southern Europe during winter 2016/17 ..................... 14
France .............................................................................................................................. 14
Spain ................................................................................................................................ 18
Italy .................................................................................................................................. 21
Greece .............................................................................................................................. 24
Electricity and gas security events in Australia ....................................................................... 27
Black system event in South Australia – September 2016 .............................................. 27
Load-shedding events in South Australia and New South Wales – February 2017 ......... 27
Impact on gas security ..................................................................................................... 28
Impact of the Qatar diplomatic crisis ...................................................................................... 28
Qatari natural gas production and export ....................................................................... 29
Evolution of Qatari LNG exports since the tension started ............................................. 31
Impact of the Hurricane Harvey on the US gas market and beyond ....................................... 32
References ............................................................................................................................... 36
2. Update on LNG market flexibility metrics ........................................................................... 39
Analysis of 2016 LNG supply availability ................................................................................. 39
Impacts of 2016 supply issues ................................................................................................. 42
LNG market flexibility – technology and participants ............................................................. 43
Moving towards a more flexible LNG market? ........................................................................ 46
Continuing need for long-term contracts to secure new FID .......................................... 46
Recent signed contracts show an increasing share of flexible volumes .......................... 46
Medium-term flexibility outlook...................................................................................... 47
References ............................................................................................................................... 53
3. Security of supply policy update: Regulatory frameworks of the European Union, Japan and
Australia ............................................................................................................................... 55
The European Commission’s update to the Security of Gas Supply Regulation ..................... 55
Japan: Emergency policy measures and co-ordination mechanisms ...................................... 58
Three levels of co-ordination for emergency measures .................................................. 58
Australia ................................................................................................................................... 61
The Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism ......................................................... 62
Medium-term policy and developments in the Australian gas market ........................... 63
Gas and power system security ....................................................................................... 63
References ............................................................................................................................... 65
4. LNG buyer types ................................................................................................................ 67
Type 1: Dependent .................................................................................................................. 69
Japan ................................................................................................................................ 69
Type 2: Diversity ...............................................................................................
United Kingdom ............................................................................................................... 72
Type 3: Reserve ....................................................................................................................... 77
Brazil ................................................................................................................................ 78
Type 4: Price ............................................................................................................................ 80
Jordan .............................................................................................................................. 80
Increasing diversification of the LNG buyer market by 2022 .................................................. 84
Type 1 Dependent ............................................................................................................ 85
Type 2 Diversity................................................................................................................ 85
Type 3 Reserve ................................................................................................................. 86
Type 4 Price ...................................................................................................................... 86
Increasing market interdependence will bring new security of supply challenges ................ 86
References ............................................................................................................................... 87
Appendix............................................................................................................................... 89
Glossary ................................................................................................................................ 95
Regional and country groupings .............................................................................................. 95
Acronyms, abbreviations and units of measure ...................................................................... 97
Acronyms and abbreviations ........................................................................................... 97
Units of measure .............................................................................................................. 98
List of figures
Figure ES.1 • LNG buyers types and clustering based on 2016 imports ......................................... 11
Figure ES.2 • LNG buyers types and clustering based on 2022 imports forecast ........................... 12
Figure 1.1 • Incremental liquefaction capacity, 2005-22................................................................ 13
Figure 1.2 • Gas price development, 2012-17 ................................................................................ 13
Figure 1.3 • Natural gas supply and demand balance in France .................................................... 15
Figure 1.4 • LNG imports and natural gas storage withdrawals in southeast France .................... 17
Figure 1.5 • Natural gas spot prices in France versus TTF and LNG spot price in Spain, winter
2016/17 ....................................................................................................................... 18
Figure 1.6 • Natural gas supply and demand balance in Spain ...................................................... 18
Figure 1.7 • Power generation mix in Spain ................................................................................... 19
Figure 1.8 • LNG imports on sales basis in Spain and average shipping time ................................ 20
Figure 1.9 • Natural gas and electricity spot prices in Spain .......................................................... 21
Figure 1.10 • Italian LNG imports and utilisation rate by regasification terminal .......................... 22
Figure 1.11 • Natural gas supply and demand balance in Italy ...................................................... 22
Figure 1.12 • Natural gas stocks and withdrawal rate at Italian UGS, winter 2016/17 .................. 23
Figure 1.13 • Power generation mix in Greece ............................................................................... 24
Figure 1.14 • Natural gas supply and demand balance in Greece .................................................. 25
Figure 1.15 • Greek natural gas monthly imports by entry point, winter 2016/17........................ 25
Figure 1.16 • LNG imports by sales basis in Greece and average shipping time ............................ 26
Figure 1.17 • Qatari LNG export volumes, liquefaction capacity and contracted volumes,
1996-2017 ................................................................................................................ 29
Figure 1.18 • Destination of Qatari LNG exports in 2016 ............................................................... 30
Figure 1.19 • Qatari LNG contract volumes by destination, 2017-22 ............................................. 31
Figure 1.20 • Monthly Qatari LNG export volumes by region, 2012-17 ......................................... 31
Figure 1.21 • Egyptian LNG imports, 2015-17 ................................................................................ 32
Figure 1.22 • United Arab Emirates LNG imports, 2012-17 ............................................................ 32
Figure 1.23 • Henry Hub spot prices during Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, Wilma and Harvey ............. 33
Figure 2.1 • LNG capacity offline (unplanned) by type, 2012-17.................................................... 39
Figure 2.2 • LNG offline capacity, available capacity and availability factor by region and country
in 2016 ........................................................................................................................ 40
Figure 2.3 • LNG offline capacity, available capacity, LNG imports and availability factor,
2012-17 ....................................................................................................................... 41
Figure 2.4 • LNG export utilisation level by country in 2016 .......................................................... 41
Figure 2.5 • LNG export, pipeline export and inland consumption in Algeria, 2012-16................. 42
Figure 2.6 • LNG contracts with portfolio players and final buyers for selected countries/projects
in 2016 ........................................................................................................................ 43
Figure 2.7 • Share of portfolio players in LNG market, 2004-22 .................................................... 44
Figure 2.8 • Shipping time analysis for LNG cargoes ...................................................................... 45
Figure 2.9 • Capacity versus contracted volumes for projects obtaining FID, 2012-17 ................. 46
Figure 2.10 • LNG export contract volumes by destination flexibility, 2012-22 ............................ 48
Figure 2.11 • LNG export contract volumes with fixed and flexible destination by region and
country, 2012-22 ...................................................................................................... 48
Figure 2.12 • LNG import contract volumes with fixed and flexible destination by region,
2012-22 .................................................................................................................... 49
Figure 2.13 • LNG import contract volumes with portfolio players, 2012-22 ................................ 50
Figure 2.14 • LNG supply evolution per type of contract, 2016-22 ................................................ 51
Figure 2.15 • LNG export contract volumes with oil index and gas to gas by region and country,
2012-22 .................................................................................................................... 52
Figure 2.16 • LNG import contract volumes with oil index and gas to gas by region, 2012-22 ..... 52
Figure 3.1 • Illustrative emergency response of the major city gas and power companies .......... 61
Figure 3.2 • Gas balance Australia, 2000-22 ................................................................................... 61
Figure 3.3 • Power generation by fuel type in Australia, 2007-16 ................................................. 64
Figure 4.1 • LNG buyer types 2016 ................................................................................................. 68
Figure 4.2 • LNG buyer types characteristics .................................................................................. 68
Figure 4.3 • LNG suppliers to Japan, 2016 ...................................................................................... 69
Figure 4.4 • Long-term primary energy supply outlook for Japan, 1970-2030 .............................. 70
Figure 4.5 • Natural gas consumption in Japan by sector, 2002-16 ............................................... 70
Figure 4.6 • LNG contracted volumes and LNG imports in Japan, 2002-22 ................................... 71
Figure 4.7 • UK gas supply portfolio and LNG imports by supplier, 2016 ...................................... 72
Figure 4.8 • LNG contracted volumes and LNG imports in the United Kingdom, 2002-22 ............ 73
Figure 4.9 • Natural gas consumption in the United Kingdom by sector, 2000-16 ........................ 73
Figure 4.10 • UK working gas capacity (left) and peak output (right) with and without Rough .... 74
Figure 4.11 • UK supply/demand balance, April 2015–May 2017 .................................................. 75
Figure 4.12 • IUK and BBL gas flows ............................................................................................... 75
Figure 4.13 • Norwegian monthly import flows and relevant capacity.......................................... 76
Figure 4.14 • LNG monthly import flows and total regasification capacity .................................... 76
Figure 4.15 • Natural gas consumption in Brazil by sector, 2000-16 ............................................. 78
Figure 4.16 • Natural gas supply and demand balance in Brazil, 2000-16 ..................................... 78
Figure 4.17 • Brazil gas supply portfolio and LNG imports by supplier, 2016 ................................ 79
Figure 4.18 • LNG contracted volumes and LNG imports in Brazil, 2000-22 .................................. 80
Figure 4.19 • Power generation mix in Jordan by fuel, 2000-15 .................................................... 80
Figure 4.20 • Natural gas supply and demand balance in Jordan, 2000-16 ................................... 81
Figure 4.21 • LNG contracted volumes and LNG imports in Jordan, 2000-22 ................................ 82
Figure 4.22 • Jordan gas supply portfolio and LNG imports by supplier, 2016 .............................. 82
Figure 4.23 • Incremental regasification capacity: conventional vs FSRU (2012-20) ..................... 83
Figure 4.24 • Load factor for FSRUs vs conventional regasification terminals (2012-16) .............. 83
Figure 4.25 • LNG buyer types 2022 ............................................................................................... 84
Figure 4.26 • LNG buyer type imports in 2016 and 2022 ............................................................... 85
List of tables
Table 2.1 • Impact of LNG supply issues in four countries plus delays in Australia (in bcm unless
stated) ......................................................................................................................... 42
Table 2.2 • Contract evolution by 2016 .......................................................................................... 47
Table 3.1 • Crisis levels according to the EU security of supply regulation .................................... 56
Table 3.2 • Japanese emergency policy measures, natural gas ..................................................... 59
Table A.1 • Adjusted liquefaction capacity and offline capacity by type (bcm) ............................. 89
Table A.2 • Adjusted liquefaction capacity and offline capacity by type (bcm) (continued) ......... 90
Table A.3 • Adjusted liquefaction capacity and offline capacity by type (bcm) (continued) ......... 91
Table A.4 • Adjusted liquefaction capacity and offline capacity by type (bcm) (continued) ......... 92
Table A.5 • Adjusted liquefaction capacity and offline capacity by type (bcm) (continued) ......... 93
List of boxes
Box 1.1 • French government to increase flexibility in gas storage obligations ............................. 16
Box 2.1 • LNG shipping time and LNG on the water ....................................................................... 44
Box 2.2 • Japan Fair Trade Commission ruling (2017) .................................................................... 49
Box 3.1 • The Kumamoto Earthquake of 2016 and the co-ordination mechanisms ...................... 59
Box 3.2 • Emergency response of major Japanese utilities and city gas companies ...................... 60
Box 4.1 • Regional focus North West Europe: Does the closure of the Rough storage site affect UK
security of gas supply? ..................................................................................................... 74
Box 4.2 • FSRUs ............................................................................................................................... 82
List of maps
Map 1.1 • Natural gas transmission network in France ................................................................. 16
Map 1.2 • US Gulf Coast increasingly connected to the global LNG market .................................. 34
Map 1.3 • Gas pipeline connections from the US to Mexico ......................................................... 35
Map 3.1 • Risk groups according to the revised EU security of supply regulation ......................... 57