高盛-页岩气深度报告-55页-2012年6月

累土

Table of contents
US shale gas ramp-up is changing the competitive landscape 3
Initiate on four A-shares and downgrade Hubei Yihua to Neutral 4
Valuations: Primarily using P/B vs ROE methodology 6
US shale gas driving structural change in chemical cost structure 9
Shale gas in China has strong potential, but still a long way to go 12
Nitrogen fertilizers: China’s urea export share to decline from 2H13 13
PVC: Limited import risks within the next 3 years; but cheap US PVC costs to cap long-term prices 17
MEG: Transportation bottleneck limits North American export growth, weak demand and sluggish prices 22
Benzene, C4, carbon black: Benefitting from tight supply of naphtha cracking byproducts 25
Beauty Star (002243.SZ, Buy): Leading the pack in China 29
Longxing Chemical (002442, Sell): Fading cost advantage 34
Qixiang Tengda (002408.SZ, Neutral): Focused on C4 value chain 37
Black Cat (002068.SZ, Neutral): Leader in carbon black industry 40
Hubei Yihua (000422.SZ): Downgrade to Neutral 44
Appendix 47
Disclosure Appendix 52