德意志银行－中国工业自动化：17年1季度跨国公司解读－20170601

秋云飞

Robust growth in 1Q; strong momentum in 2Q
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong
Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should
be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should
consider  this  report  as  only  a  single  factor  in  making  their  investment  decision.  DISCLOSURES  AND  ANALYST
CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017.
Sky Hong, CFA
Research Analyst
(+852 ) 2203 6131
sky.hong@db.com
Nick Zheng, CFA
Research Analyst
(+852 ) 2203 6198
nick.zheng@db.com
Top picks
Hollysys Automation Technol
(HOLI.OQ),USD15.99
Buy
Shenzhen Inovance Technolog
(300124.SZ),CNY22.90
Buy
Source: Deutsche Bank
Companies Featured
Hollysys Automation Technol
(HOLI.OQ),USD15.99
Buy
2016A  2017E  2018E
P/E (x)  9.6  11.9  8.7
EV/EBITDA (x)  6.7  7.0  4.8
Price/book (x)  1.5  1.3  1.1
Shenzhen Inovance Technolog
(300124.SZ),CNY22.90
Buy
2016A  2017E  2018E
P/E (x)  32.7  34.0  26.9
EV/EBITDA (x)  24.9  26.2  20.4
Price/book (x)  6.9  7.1  6.1
Source: Deutsche Bank
China IA growth further picked up in 1Q17
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1Q152Q153Q154Q151Q162Q163Q164Q161Q17
YoY chg%
China market Siemens* Yaskawa*
Source: Company data, Gongkong. *Note: China sales growth
Related recent research  Date
China Industrial Automation:
1Q17 - a strong start to the year
Sky Hong, CFA
25 May 2017
Source: Deutsche Bank
Valuation
We value HOLI and Inovance via DCF
(WACC of 12.3%/8.0% and a TGR of
0%/2% respectively).
In order to better gauge the China industrial automation (IA) market, we launch
quarterly read-across from Multinational Corporations (MNCs) by taking a close
look at MNCs' IA business development in China and management comments.
This,  along  with  our  existing  quarterly  IA  monitor,  aims  to  provide  investors
with a comprehensive review of the China IA market. For 1Q17, datapoints and
management  comments  from  major  MNCs  were  positive,  with  channel
restocking  and  factory  automation  being  the  major  drivers.  With  continued
strength in demand, MNCs are generally expecting a strong 2Q ahead.

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