Migration and Mobility 世界银行－欧洲和中亚经济更新，2017年10月：移民与流动－...

秋云飞

Contents
iii
Acknowledgments...................................................vii
Abbreviations.......................................................ix
Country Groups......................................................xi
Executive Summary..................................................xiii
PART I. Economic Outlook..........................1
1. Economic Developments and Prospects..................3
Overview.........................................................3
GDP growth is strong throughout the region.............................5
ECA is outperforming the rest of the world in exports......................6
Inflation has normalized and unemployment fallen........................9
Fiscal positions in the region are consistent with much improved
cyclical conditions..............................................11
New technologies have created daunting labor market challenges..........11
Low interest rates, vulnerable banking sectors, and new technologies
pose financial risks..............................................12
Regional political and economic cohesion is being tested.................14
The greatest structural challenge is the sweeping change in relative
prices in eastern ECA............................................15
References......................................................17
2. Migration and Mobility in Europe and Central Asia........19
Overview........................................................19
The refugee crisis is raising Europeans’ concerns about migration ...........20
Migration has long helped Europeans respond to economic and
political challenges .............................................27
Migration patterns in ECA are likely to change..........................29
Policies should remain supportive of migration..........................34
Conclusion......................................................46
Annex. List of Countries for Which Data Are Available ....................47
Notes..........................................................50
References......................................................51
PART II. Selected Country Pages....................57
Albania.........................................................59
Armenia........................................................61
Azerbaijan.......................................................63
Belarus.........................................................65
Bosnia and Herzegovina............................................67
Bulgaria.........................................................69
Croatia.........................................................71
Georgia.........................................................73
Kazakhstan......................................................75
Kosovo.........................................................77
Kyrgyz Republic..................................................79
Macedonia FYR...................................................81
Moldova........................................................83
Montenegro.....................................................85
Poland..........................................................87
Romania........................................................89
Russian Federation................................................91
Serbia..........................................................93
Tajikistan........................................................95
Turkey..........................................................97
Turkmenistan.....................................................99
Ukraine........................................................101
Uzbekistan.....................................................103
Boxes
2.1  Glossary: Migrants, refugees, and asylum seekers....................21
2.2  What affects public perceptions of immigration?.....................24
2.3  The globalization of education...................................32
2.4  How do migration and connectivity affect growth?...................35
Figures
1.1  Industrial production has strengthened, in the region and globally........7
1.2  Slowdown in China has not led to slowdown elsewhere.................7
1.3  Europe and Central Asia outperforms the rest of the world in exports.....8
1.4  EU accession countries outperformed China in export markets...........9
1.5  The unemployment rate in the EU-28 has fallen back to pre-crisis levels...10
1.6.  German unemployment has reversed the upward trend...............10
1.7  Oil-exporting and remittance-receiving countries experienced strong real
depreciations.................................................16
2.1  The stock of refugees has risen, globally and in Europe and Central Asia..20
2.2  Survey respondents have cited immigration and terrorism as the most
important issues facing the European Union since November 2015......22
2.3  Public perceptions of immigration are more positive in Northern Europe
than in the rest of the region.....................................23
B2.2.1 People in the European Union are more accepting of immigration from
other EU member states than from outside the European Union.........24
B2.2.2 Opposition to migration is more economic than cultural...............25
2.4  The vast majority of refugees and asylum seekers in Europe and
Central Asia now come from the Middle East and North Africa..........26
2.5  Asylum rejection rates in the European Union are high................27
2.6  The share of high-skilled immigrants in OECD countries increased
between 2000 and 2010........................................30
2.7  ECA countries increasingly aim to attract high-skilled immigrants........31
B2.3.1 Most top ECA destinations attracted more international tertiary
students in 2014 than in 2004....................................32
B2.3.2 Most source countries of international tertiary students are in ECA.......32
B2.3.3 ECA hosted half of the world’s tertiary students in 2014...............33
B2.3.4 Top 10 corridors of international tertiary students with ECA hosts........33
2.8  The share of temporary employment increased in Europe and Central
Asia between 2002 and 2016....................................34
2.9  The share of temporary migration in total migration increased in most
countries in Europe and Central Asia between 2000 and 2010..........34
2.10  The share of temporary migration is positively related to the share
of temporary employment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
2.11  Unemployment rates are higher for foreign-born than for native-born
workers in most countries in Europe and Central Asia.................38
2.12  Tertiary education rates in Europe and Central Asia are lower among
the foreign-born than the native-born population....................38
2.13  The gap between measures of deprivation and poverty of the
foreign-born and native-born populations is larger in the EU15 than
in the rest of the European Union.................................40
2.14  There is variation across countries in the availability of policy measures
that aim to integrate irregular migrants, 2015.......................41
2.15  Many countries in Europe and Central Asia depend on remittances......42
2.16  Nearly all EU-13 countries have developed policies to encourage the
return of their citizens...........................................42
Tables
E.1  Regional classification...........................................xi
1.1  Upward revisions of GDP forecasts for Europe and Central Asia ..........5
1.2  Divergence in fiscal balances in Europe and Central Asia..............11
1.3  Foreign direct investment has declined in Central Europe and
the Baltics...................................................14
B2.4.1 Impact of connectivity on annual growth of income per capita (percent) ..36
B2.4.2 Countries in Europe and Central Asia with highest and
lowest connectivity............................................37
B2.4.1 Impact of connectivity on annual growth of income per capita (percent) ..37
2.1  Selected social statistics for people born in the European Union
and elsewhere ...............................................39
A.1  Economies included in figure 2.4.................................47
A.2  Economies included in figure 2.6 .................................48
A.3  Economies included in figure B2.3.1...............................48
A.4  Economies included in figure B.2.3.2 ..............................48
A.5  Economies included in figure B2.3.3...............................49