摩根士丹利全球银行业分析

iverson621

摩根士丹利全球银行业分析
Global Banks
What economic impact could
the G-SIFI surcharge have?
Bottom line: Many of the top 25 banks could approach
likely G-SIFI standards in the next 3-4 years, but at the
cost of dividends, returns or, critically, through more
aggressive deleveraging. The latter is the key risk we
see to economic recovery and our RoE expectations.
SIFI scores. We have created a proprietary SIFI index
for the top 25 banks to replicate how we think policy
makers are approaching G-SIFIs. We expect 2.5%
(2-3% range) additional buffer for the largest cluster of
global banks likely in negotiations (e.g. Citi, JPM, BAC,
HSBC, BNP, BARC, DBK, RBS). We see a graduated
approach based on 5 factors in ~5 clusters.
Stock implications. Whilst regulators may allow a glide
path to 2019, we think investors will look to 2013 and
cash generation as a test. Unicredit, Mizuho, DX, Soc
Gen, DBK are among those with gaps to our 2013 base
case. Our work leads us to assume modest cash
payouts for DBK (we now forecast scrip), Soc Gen, CA,
Natixis, RBS, BARC and others. We cut our buyback
assumptions for BAC, C, and JPM so that they can raise
CT1 in 2013 to 10%, WFC to 9% and MTB to 7.75%.
Risk of second order effects from G-SIFI buffer. The
key risk – depending on calibration – is how much the
buffer could be a drag on economic recovery and bank
earnings. The cost/benefit discussions should take into
consideration the tripling in bank capital already implied
by Basel 3, alongside structural changes, as well as
allow some flexibility to enable banks to lend into cyclical
downturns. We think funding markets will ask for higher
capital ratios for the next 50 banks, offsetting their ability
to pick up lending share from the G-SIFIs, which policy
makers’ models expect.
Expect uncertainty on impact on ROE/capital ratios
to persist, but diminish into the Nov publication.
Discount rates on banks are very high due to sovereign
risk and regulation. Preferred stocks include those less
at capital risk: HSBC, UBS, BAC, C, WFC, DnB, BNP.


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